Stability and numerical simulation of an SCIRS epidemic model for Covid-19 transmission by Caputo derivative of fractional order

Authors

  • Fatemeh Janatolmakan Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University
  • Vahid Roomi Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University
  • Tohid Kasbi Gharahasanlou

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30495/jme.v18i0.3221

Keywords:

Basic reproduction number, Covid-19, Epidemiological modeling, Equilibrium point, Numerical simulation, SCIRS model

Abstract

In this paper, applying Caputo fractional derivative operator, the SCIRS epidemic model of Covid-19 has been presented. First, the well-definedness of the model (positive invariance) has been checked. We then calculate the equilibrium points of the system and the reproduction number and discuss the local and global stability of the equilibria based on values of the reproduction number. For the global stability of the rest points, the Liapunov’s second method and LaSalle’s invarianceprinciple are used. Applying fixed point theory, the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the model has been proven. Additionally, by using MATLAB and fractional Euler method, a numerical method has been applied to simulate the solutions based on real data and predict the transmission of Covid-19.

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Published

2025-02-02

Issue

Vol. 18

Section

Vol. 18, No. 11, (2024)

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